For those struggling to read, “featuring” artists are to be disregarded, the lead credited act the only one which counts for bet settlement purposes, but full-blown co-credited duets are to be considered separate lines to any solo release. So far so good.
Until last Friday there were only two lines on which significant money had been traded (people both backing and laying as they felt appropriate). “Ladbaby” and “Ed Sheeran & Elton John”. The moment the existence of the Ladbaby single was confirmed it moved into a clear favourite, Ed and Elton priced out of the running.
Then, as the embedded tweeter above noted, on Friday morning Betfair did something odd, adding in a new line to the market for a single which credited Ladbaby. Ed Sheeran and Elton John all together. The implication was that this was the race entry on which winning bets would be settled. The price for “Ladbaby” collapsed as everyone who had lumped on it frantically traded out to minimise their losses. I couldn’t help but wonder if this was another cockup that was going to lead to a mass market void and everyone having their traded money returned.
It was only on Sunday when the first official midweek update arrived and it became clear that Sausage Rolls For Everyone would be credited (as it is listed in online stores) to Ladbaby FEATURING Ed Sheeran and Elton John. Meaning that as per Betfair’s own rules, bets on “Ladbaby” solo would be winning ones.
It meant another dramatic reversal of the markets, as Ladbaby’s odds collapsed (they had shot out as high as 8/1 at one stage) while the three-way credited entry moved to an outsider once more.
If none of the above makes any sense to you, don’t worry. But for canny traders it meant a gift-wrapped way to make money on a betting race which is pretty much already sewn up.